News and Blog

Treasuries Move Lower

Wednesday the Bond ground lower than I had expected as the USH traded in a slightly above average 1-29-point daily range (avg. is 1-21-pts) and settled down 1-09-points on the session at 152-01. I am happy to see both the Bond and Ten-year continue to hold…

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Morning Thoughts – Jan 19

Financials - Fed Chair Yellen gave a speech in SF late yesterday and her comments were deemed as slightly hawkish.  The dollar firmed modestly following her remarks and Fed Funds dropped slightly.  The key comment off the newswires was she and “most colleagues expect...

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Morning Thoughts – Jan 18

Softs - Brazil’s Conab issued their first official projection for 2017 coffee production yesterday.  Conab is projecting coffee output in a range of 43.7-47.5 million bags, which would be down fairly significantly from 51.4 million in 2016.  The smaller crop doesn’t...

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Morning Thoughts – Jan 13

Morning Thoughts – Jan 13

Grains - Stream of consciousness thoughts today: As expected, WASDE lowered their meal production and increased their soyoil production despite no change to the overall soybean crush figure. Meal yields have not been solid to start the year, and despite the reduction...

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Treasuries Test Resistance Overnight

Bonds and 10-Year Test Daily Boundary During the overnight hours Bond and Ten-year futures came within a tick or two or tested my upside daily boundary levels.  USH topped out at 153-31, just shy of my 154-03 level, while TYH peaked at 125-10+ compared to 125-08/10....

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Morning Thoughts – Jan 12

Grains - Export sales are out this morning before the more important USDA reports later in the afternoon.  Here are expectations: Corn 450-900 Soybeans 400-800 Soymeal 40-160 Soyoil 5-30 Wheat 150-300 As you can see, expectations are down from what we’ve been used...

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Steven Orfanos on Bonds and Notes

I have been in the futures industry for 30 years. I worked at JPMorgan for 21 years and have run my own business since 2007. I write and analyze 30 and 10 year futures and have been compiling this report for 26 years. If you would like to learn more about…

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Morning Thoughts – Jan 11

Morning Thoughts – Jan 11

Grains - Today we’ll focus mainly on the Quarterly Grain stocks portion of Thursday’s USDA reports.  I always hesitate to cover expectations for stocks figures as they are notoriously unpredictable and it always provides a good opportunity to look foolish.  For the...

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