Crude oil futures are positing a modest bounce this morning following yesterday’s smackdown off the 50-day MA. This could be partly due to the above-mentioned saber-rattling, which is often times supportive for crude oil. Additionally, yesterday’s API inventory release showed a larger than expected drawdown in US oil inventories of 5.8 mil barrels. Today’s EIA release has been expected to show a decline of 2.0 mil.
The report yesterday from Volvo that it is looking for every car it produces from 2019 on to have an electric motor as opposed to a combustion engine was pretty interesting to me. It really seems the conversion to electric vehicles is going to start happening very fast. It is estimated that electric car sales in the US account for only 1-3% of total sales right now, but obviously that number is only going to grow and it might grow fast. Bloomberg is running an article this morning suggesting that they believe electric cars will outsell gas/diesel cars within two decades. They say electric cars could account for a third of the global auto fleet by 2040…and they estimate this could displace about 8 mbpd of oil production. For reference the Saudis currently export roughly 7 mbpd. What I find interesting about these projections is that each new projection on electric vehicle adoption seems to be getting more and more aggressive. This tells me the pace is growing faster than expected and we should be prepared for what this means in terms of global energy consumption. It also means we won’t really be waiting for 2040 for a major shift in consumption trends to affect our markets.
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