NesvickCrops
Following the discussion yesterday on new crop export demand prospects, I realized I have been so focused on weather and conditions lately that I haven’t really been paying attention to old crop demand figures recently.  I decided to look closely at inspections yesterday, and I very quickly realized I’ve fallen behind on old crop corn export prospects.

Simply put, WASDE is too low on their corn export figure and my only question is by how much?  Census export totals through May combined with weekly inspections since then lead to a rough estimate of total MYTD exports of roughly 2,050 mil bu.  This leaves a remainder of 175 mil bu to reach the WASDE projection or a weekly average of roughly 25 mil bu per week.  As you can see on the chart below, weekly corn shipments at this point of year typically don’t drop below 30 mil bu.  Reaching a final marketing year export total of 2,275 mil bu, or 50 mil bu more than the current WASDE projection, would require a weekly average from this point forward of roughly 32 mil bu a week.  Even that seems like it might be a bit too pessimistic.

Weekly Corn Export Inspections

Bottom line, I’d expect WASDE to raise their corn export figure next month by at least 50 mil bu and potentially more.  This doesn’t necessarily change much in terms of corn price prospects in the near term, but still important to note.

Please note this is just a small sampling of commentary available to clients.  Please visit www.nesvick.com for more information.

DISCLAIMER:
The information contained herein has been taken from trade and statistical services and other sources we believe are reliable. Opinions expressed reflect judgments at this date and are subject to change without notice. These materials represent the opinions and viewpoints of the author  and do not necessarily reflect the opinions or trading strategies of Nesvick Trading Group LLC and its subsidiaries. Nesvick Trading Group, LLC does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Officers, employees, and affiliates of Nesvick Trading Group, LLC may or may not, from time to time, have long or short positions in, and buy or sell, the securities and derivatives (for their own account or others), if any, referred to in this commentary. There is risk of loss in trading futures and options and it is not suitable for all investors. PAST RESULTS ARE NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RETURNS. Nesvick Trading Group LLC is not responsible for any redistribution of this material by third parties or any trading decision taken by persons not intended to view this material.