Crops –
As I’ve alluded to a few times since Friday’s WASDE, the lack of revision to the old crop soybean export figure has me perplexed. I really don’t know how WASDE would explain it, but for the sake of argument I’ve tried to approach the question with a bias of trying to understand where WASDE is coming from.
Attached to the right is a breakdown of the current soybean export program so far this marketing year. First remember once again we should be looking at Census totals and not inspections or shipments. It seems every year this is forgotten. MYTD shipments through April total 1,862 mil bu. Based on the WASDE projection, it would mean Census exports will need to average roughly 47 mil bu monthly from May-Aug to hit their projection. May inspections totaled roughly 53 mil bu which supports the idea that Census should come in at least pretty close to its average necessary pace for May.
Then looking forward, total outstanding sales this year are roughly 262 mil bu compared to 196 mil at this time last year. Even with a smaller sales total, shipments from this point last year averaged 80 mil bu per month, but I think it’s questionable to assume such a strong US program considering big SAM crops. Still, its not like we’re done selling o/c business so this also supports the idea that WASDE is too small on exports.
All of that being said, I suppose where I can give WASDE a little leeway is at the very bottom. If you believe the WASDE export figure with today’s current outstanding sales we’d be looking at a rollover into n/c of roughly 2 mmt. While that is above average, it certainly isn’t a record and perhaps WASDE is looking at this as a justification for their current projection. I think this is a weak justification, but I suppose it is something. We’re not done selling o/c business of course, so that implied rollover assumption is only going to grow larger in the weeks ahead.
So, to repeat, WASDE once again appears in the dark on soybean export demand though their implied rollover assumption doesn’t yet look outrageous. I still think they’re way too low, and as mentioned yesterday I’m personally assuming 2,125 mil bu (up 75 vs. WASDE). Thoughts appreciated.
Please note this is just a small sampling of commentary available to clients. Please visit www.nesvick.com for more information.
DISCLAIMER:
The information contained herein has been taken from trade and statistical services and other sources we believe are reliable. Opinions expressed reflect judgments at this date and are subject to change without notice. These materials represent the opinions and viewpoints of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions or trading strategies of Nesvick Trading Group LLC and its subsidiaries. Nesvick Trading Group, LLC does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Officers, employees, and affiliates of Nesvick Trading Group, LLC may or may not, from time to time, have long or short positions in, and buy or sell, the securities and derivatives (for their own account or others), if any, referred to in this commentary. There is risk of loss in trading futures and options and it is not suitable for all investors. PAST RESULTS ARE NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RETURNS. Nesvick Trading Group LLC is not responsible for any redistribution of this material by third parties or any trading decision taken by persons not intended to view this material.
