Crops –
I mentioned yesterday I thought that some might be looking at early assumptions on Prevent Plant area and scaling back on those figures a bit. This seems reasonable considering the Northern Plains states typically lead the way in terms of PP area and those areas have seen relatively decent planting progress thus far and appear (for now) to have a benign forecast. That being said, I did start looking at PP dates yesterday and I noticed that several southern states are approaching their “final” planting dates for corn and this might factor into planting decisions in the near future. The amount of area under consideration here is not insignificant. I’ve attached a breakdown of estimated corn acres unplanted based on Monday’s Crop Progress data. We don’t have district-level planted area estimates yet, but I’m using historical norms vs. state-total figures for these estimates.
In particular I want to look at KS, CO, and MO for a moment. “Final” planting dates for corn are fast approaching for a large majority of these states. I’ll include the KS map below, but just keep in mind the date for most of eastern CO and western MO is May 25 as well. Northeastern MO’s final planting date appears to be May 31.
So looking at the first map above, we have roughly 1.6 million acres of unplanted corn in KS, 400k in CO, and roughly 220k in MO where final planting dates are fast approaching. How far past the final planting date will farmers be willing to go? I don’t know the answer, and I’m hopeful for any feedback you’re willing to provide. Certainly I’m not of the belief that we’re looking at 2 mil acres lost here, but I do believe it is reasonable to assume that not all of this area will be planted. Certainly a favorable soil moisture profile in these areas might entice planting past the “final” date to take advantage of good conditions. But basis in KS specifically remains depressed and farm-level prices appear to be below the cost of production. If that is the case, why not take the PP? Again, I’d appreciate any feedback.
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