NesvickGrains
As I noted yesterday there isn’t much to talk about right now.  We’re basically wrapping up the South American growing season (still some time left in Arg, but you know what I mean) and awaiting the US planting season (which unofficially kicks off next Friday, I guess).  With that in mind I just thought I’d point out a simple exercise I went through in my spare time yesterday.

The tables below breakdown the basic state of affairs in terms of major exporter supplies for corn and soybeans.  Note for the South American supply figures, I’m not even considering carry-in stocks, which would just add slightly to the overall total.  I thought it was worth taking a simple snapshot look at the difference in supplies right now compared to this time last year.

Soybean and Corn Supply Breakdown

These are pretty dramatic changes YOY, most notably in corn.  Yet interestingly, corn prices are only down slightly from this point last year and soybean prices are actually higher.

I know what you’re thinking…I’m not accounting for demand here.  That’s absolutely correct.  I will go through a MYTD breakdown of demand trends here tomorrow.  WASDE has plugged in significant YOY demand increases as an offset to this supply, but are we keeping pace?  Hopefully we’ll have a better handle on that tomorrow.

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