{"id":1980,"date":"2017-04-03T06:30:13","date_gmt":"2017-04-03T12:30:13","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.ctsfutures.com\/?p=1980"},"modified":"2017-04-03T06:30:29","modified_gmt":"2017-04-03T12:30:29","slug":"morning-thoughts-2017-04-03","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/udg.ehs.mybluehost.me\/morning-thoughts-2017-04-03\/","title":{"rendered":"Morning Thoughts &#8211; Apr 3"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><u><a href="../wp-content\/uploads\/Nesvick.png\" alt=\"Nesvick\" width=\"287\" height=\"117\" \/><\/a>Grains<\/u> &#8211;<br \/>\nJust some short stream of consciousness this morning:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Friday\u2019s report numbers were obviously bearish.<\/li>\n<li>For soybeans, it is likely o\/c residual use needs to be revised down a bit, but WASDE might not feel the need to do that yet. For their n\/c balance sheet in May, the acreage combined with their yield starting point and the o\/c carryout should give us a starting point of around a 500 carryout.\u00a0 I suppose you could argue they\u2019d raise demand to lower that a little, but where is that demand going to come from? South American crops get bigger.<\/li>\n<li>In corn, F&amp;R likely gets revised lower based on the stocks number. This is likely somewhat offset by further increases to the ethanol grind, but that really won\u2019t add up to much.\u00a0 Even with the sharp YOY reduction in corn area, the initial starting point for the May WASDE n\/c carryout should be somewhere +\/- 2.2 bil bu, just like the Outlook Forum showed.\u00a0 Again, there isn\u2019t much argument for higher demand either.\u00a0 In fact, based on good conditions for Brazil\u2019s safrinha crop so far one could make the argument their n\/c export figure is already too big.<\/li>\n<li>Wheat stocks were larger than expected which should lead to a F&amp;R reduction and an overall larger o\/c carryout. In terms of n\/c, the focus is on weather.\u00a0 The US Plains has been treated fairly well so far this spring, and FSU areas are thought to be in pretty good shape overall.\u00a0 The only place in the world with somewhat stressful conditions for wheat might be North Africa right now.\u00a0 Despite the lower area and production in the US, as of today it doesn\u2019t appear we\u2019re done cleaning up world wheat supplies.<\/li>\n<li>Does any of this matter? Corn and wheat were higher on Friday and everything is higher this morning at the time of writing.<\/li>\n<li>Of course it matters, but\u2014we\u2019ve got a looooong spring and summer ahead of us. Markets have a massive short position and when was the last time we had a spring\/summer where something didn\u2019t happen to spook the market?<\/li>\n<li>I\u2019m not calling for a rally, but I just question the near term downside until at least we get some planting progress. Prices should hold some planting risk premium and some weather risk premium.\u00a0 At these price levels, I&#8217;d say the risk premium is pretty minimal right now.<\/li>\n<li>Food for thought\u2014Was Friday\u2019s soybean acreage number the high water mark for the year?<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Don\u2019t forget the first national Crop Progress report will be released this afternoon.\u00a0 I highly doubt it\u2019 will post a corn planting progress figure just yet, but maybe.\u00a0 Cotton planting and winter wheat conditions will be the likely headliners today.<\/p>\n<p><em>Please note this is just a small sampling of commentary available to clients.\u00a0 Please visit <a href="../wp-content\/uploads\/Nesvick.png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"David Zelinski\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@CTSfutures\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@CTSfutures\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"David Zelinski\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/udg.ehs.mybluehost.me\/morning-thoughts-2017-04-03\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/udg.ehs.mybluehost.me\/morning-thoughts-2017-04-03\/\",\"name\":\"Morning Thoughts - Apr 3 - CTS\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/udg.ehs.mybluehost.me\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/udg.ehs.mybluehost.me\/morning-thoughts-2017-04-03\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/udg.ehs.mybluehost.me\/morning-thoughts-2017-04-03\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"http:\/\/www.ctsfutures.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/Nesvick.png\",\"datePublished\":\"2017-04-03T12:30:13+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2017-04-03T12:30:29+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/udg.ehs.mybluehost.me\/#\/schema\/person\/2ebea80d35d247463c6be35dcf694285\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/udg.ehs.mybluehost.me\/morning-thoughts-2017-04-03\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/udg.ehs.mybluehost.me\/morning-thoughts-2017-04-03\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/udg.ehs.mybluehost.me\/morning-thoughts-2017-04-03\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/udg.ehs.mybluehost.me\/wp-content\/uploads\/Nesvick.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/udg.ehs.mybluehost.me\/wp-content\/uploads\/Nesvick.png\",\"width\":287,\"height\":117,\"caption\":\"Nesvick\"},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/udg.ehs.mybluehost.me\/morning-thoughts-2017-04-03\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/udg.ehs.mybluehost.me\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Morning Thoughts &#8211; Apr 3\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/udg.ehs.mybluehost.me\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/udg.ehs.mybluehost.me\/\",\"name\":\"CTS\",\"description\":\"Cunningham Trading Systems\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/udg.ehs.mybluehost.me\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/udg.ehs.mybluehost.me\/#\/schema\/person\/2ebea80d35d247463c6be35dcf694285\",\"name\":\"David Zelinski\",\"sameAs\":[\"http:\/\/nesvick.com\"],\"url\":\"https:\/\/udg.ehs.mybluehost.me\/author\/dzelinski\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Morning Thoughts - Apr 3 - CTS","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/udg.ehs.mybluehost.me\/morning-thoughts-2017-04-03\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Morning Thoughts - Apr 3 - CTS","og_description":"Grains &#8211; Just some short stream of consciousness this morning: Friday\u2019s report numbers were obviously bearish. For soybeans, it is likely o\/c residual use needs to be revised down a bit, but WASDE might not feel the need to do that yet. For their n\/c balance sheet in May, the acreage combined with their yield [&hellip;]","og_url":"https:\/\/udg.ehs.mybluehost.me\/morning-thoughts-2017-04-03\/","og_site_name":"CTS","article_publisher":"http:\/\/www.facebook.com\/ctsfutures","article_published_time":"2017-04-03T12:30:13+00:00","article_modified_time":"2017-04-03T12:30:29+00:00","og_image":[{"url":"http:\/\/www.ctsfutures.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/Nesvick.png"}],"author":"David Zelinski","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_creator":"@CTSfutures","twitter_site":"@CTSfutures","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"David Zelinski","Est. reading time":"3 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/udg.ehs.mybluehost.me\/morning-thoughts-2017-04-03\/","url":"https:\/\/udg.ehs.mybluehost.me\/morning-thoughts-2017-04-03\/","name":"Morning Thoughts - Apr 3 - CTS","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/udg.ehs.mybluehost.me\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/udg.ehs.mybluehost.me\/morning-thoughts-2017-04-03\/#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/udg.ehs.mybluehost.me\/morning-thoughts-2017-04-03\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"http:\/\/www.ctsfutures.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/Nesvick.png","datePublished":"2017-04-03T12:30:13+00:00","dateModified":"2017-04-03T12:30:29+00:00","author":{"@id":"https:\/\/udg.ehs.mybluehost.me\/#\/schema\/person\/2ebea80d35d247463c6be35dcf694285"},"breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/udg.ehs.mybluehost.me\/morning-thoughts-2017-04-03\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/udg.ehs.mybluehost.me\/morning-thoughts-2017-04-03\/"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/udg.ehs.mybluehost.me\/morning-thoughts-2017-04-03\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/udg.ehs.mybluehost.me\/wp-content\/uploads\/Nesvick.png","contentUrl":"https:\/\/udg.ehs.mybluehost.me\/wp-content\/uploads\/Nesvick.png","width":287,"height":117,"caption":"Nesvick"},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/udg.ehs.mybluehost.me\/morning-thoughts-2017-04-03\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/udg.ehs.mybluehost.me\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Morning Thoughts &#8211; Apr 3"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/udg.ehs.mybluehost.me\/#website","url":"https:\/\/udg.ehs.mybluehost.me\/","name":"CTS","description":"Cunningham Trading Systems","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/udg.ehs.mybluehost.me\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":"required name=search_term_string"}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/udg.ehs.mybluehost.me\/#\/schema\/person\/2ebea80d35d247463c6be35dcf694285","name":"David Zelinski","sameAs":["http:\/\/nesvick.com"],"url":"https:\/\/udg.ehs.mybluehost.me\/author\/dzelinski\/"}]}},"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/udg.ehs.mybluehost.me\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1980"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/udg.ehs.mybluehost.me\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/udg.ehs.mybluehost.me\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/udg.ehs.mybluehost.me\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/udg.ehs.mybluehost.me\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1980"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/udg.ehs.mybluehost.me\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1980\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1981,"href":"https:\/\/udg.ehs.mybluehost.me\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1980\/revisions\/1981"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/udg.ehs.mybluehost.me\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1980"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/udg.ehs.mybluehost.me\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1980"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/udg.ehs.mybluehost.me\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1980"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}