{"id":1519,"date":"2016-11-29T08:36:39","date_gmt":"2016-11-29T14:36:39","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.ctsfutures.com\/?p=1519"},"modified":"2016-12-13T14:29:28","modified_gmt":"2016-12-13T20:29:28","slug":"morning-thoughts-2016-11-29","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/udg.ehs.mybluehost.me\/morning-thoughts-2016-11-29\/","title":{"rendered":"Morning Thoughts – Nov 29"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/a>Grains<\/u> –
\nUSDA today will release its \u201cearly look\u201d of selected tables on its long-term projections through 2026 later this morning.\u00a0 I personally never put too much thought into these figures, as they are mainly done for government budgeting purposes, but one can never really tell what will excite the market.<\/p>\n

The primary focus today from these numbers will be the acreage projections.\u00a0 In terms of wheat, these numbers will not breakdown acreage by class, but instead we\u2019ll merely get one all-wheat acreage estimate in the balance sheet (with likely no other details).\u00a0 Note that last year\u2019s November wheat estimate posted an all-wheat planted area estimate of 53.0 mil acres vs. the reality of 50.2 mil now that all has been said and done.\u00a0 That isn\u2019t said to poke fun at whomever is tasked with producing this estimate, however, and the market in general has proven to be quite inept in figuring wheat area over the past few years.\u00a0 \"WinterThe breakdown to the right shows how notoriously bad the market has been in recent years in trying to determine winter wheat area heading into the Jan report.\u00a0 Only twice did the average guess prove to be too low during this stretch, and one of those years was basically an exact match.\u00a0 The point here is, it seems highly likely that we\u2019re expecting too much winter wheat area right now.<\/p>\n

Of course the all-wheat area estimate will probably take a back seat to the corn and soybean guesses for 2017.\u00a0 I think most agree that current economics favor a higher level of soybean acreage in the US next year, but the debate regards to what degree.\u00a0 As the chart shows, the soy\/corn ratio is sharply higher than we\u2019ve seen in recent years, though obviously we\u2019re still a ways off from finalizing planting decisions (in general).\u00a0 Considering the outlook released today from USDA is preliminary, I would only look for a modest increase in soybean area today vs. corn.\u00a0 I doubt this will prove to be market-moving, but you just never know.<\/p>\n

\"New<\/p>\n

DISCLAIMER<\/u><\/strong>:<\/strong>
\nThe information contained herein has been taken from trade and statistical services and other sources we believe are reliable. Opinions expressed reflect judgments at this date and are subject to change without notice. These materials represent the opinions and viewpoints of the author\u00a0 and do not necessarily reflect the opinions or trading strategies of Nesvick Trading Group LLC and its subsidiaries. Nesvick Trading Group, LLC does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Officers, employees, and affiliates of Nesvick Trading Group, LLC may or may not, from time to time, have long or short positions in, and buy or sell, the securities and derivatives (for their own account or others), if any, referred to in this commentary. There is risk of loss in trading futures and options and it is not suitable for all investors. PAST RESULTS ARE NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RETURNS. Nesvick Trading Group LLC is not responsible for any redistribution of this material by third parties or any trading decision taken by persons not intended to view this material.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Grains – USDA today will release its \u201cearly look\u201d of selected tables on its long-term projections through 2026 later this morning.\u00a0 I personally never put too much thought into these figures, as they are mainly done for government budgeting purposes, but one can never really tell what will excite the market. The primary focus today […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":1521,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[13],"tags":[],"yoast_head":"\nMorning Thoughts - Nov 29 - CTS<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Morning thoughts for Tuesday November 29, 2016. 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