Grains –
As I noted yesterday there isn’t much to talk about right now. We’re basically wrapping up the South American growing season (still some time left in Arg, but you know what I mean) and awaiting the US planting season (which unofficially kicks off next Friday, I guess). With that in mind I just thought I’d point out a simple exercise I went through in my spare time yesterday.
The tables below breakdown the basic state of affairs in terms of major exporter supplies for corn and soybeans. Note for the South American supply figures, I’m not even considering carry-in stocks, which would just add slightly to the overall total. I thought it was worth taking a simple snapshot look at the difference in supplies right now compared to this time last year.
These are pretty dramatic changes YOY, most notably in corn. Yet interestingly, corn prices are only down slightly from this point last year and soybean prices are actually higher.
I know what you’re thinking…I’m not accounting for demand here. That’s absolutely correct. I will go through a MYTD breakdown of demand trends here tomorrow. WASDE has plugged in significant YOY demand increases as an offset to this supply, but are we keeping pace? Hopefully we’ll have a better handle on that tomorrow.
Please note this is just a small sampling of commentary available to clients. Please visit www.nesvick.com for more information.
DISCLAIMER:
The information contained herein has been taken from trade and statistical services and other sources we believe are reliable. Opinions expressed reflect judgments at this date and are subject to change without notice. These materials represent the opinions and viewpoints of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions or trading strategies of Nesvick Trading Group LLC and its subsidiaries. Nesvick Trading Group, LLC does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Officers, employees, and affiliates of Nesvick Trading Group, LLC may or may not, from time to time, have long or short positions in, and buy or sell, the securities and derivatives (for their own account or others), if any, referred to in this commentary. There is risk of loss in trading futures and options and it is not suitable for all investors. PAST RESULTS ARE NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RETURNS. Nesvick Trading Group LLC is not responsible for any redistribution of this material by third parties or any trading decision taken by persons not intended to view this material.
